Our new research piece runs a five-factor power-rating model (regular-season points, goal differential, special teams, hot-goalie SV%, expected goals) through Bradley-Terry head-to-head and a full bracket simulation. Output: a per-team Stanley Cup probability for all 16 playoff teams summing to 100%. Top-line findings: Colorado leads at 30.9%, Carolina second at 25.4%, Buffalo third at 13.9%. Anaheim leads its first-round series 3-1 but only carries 1.7% Cup probability. Edmonton has collapsed to 0.4%. Full model methodology, charts, and per-team breakdowns published.
Canonical coverage: This story is covered in depth on our linked guide. Read the full reference page for the complete context.