Four Game 7s in the next 36 hours decide who advances to Round 2. Saturday 5/2 at TD Garden: Boston (-3.5) hosts Philadelphia in the only NBA Eastern Conference Game 7 standing — Tatum's defending-champion core vs Embiid back to playoff form (33 in G5, key in G6). Sunday 5/3 has three: Tampa Bay (favored) hosts Montreal at Amalie Arena, where rookie Jakub Dobes faces Vasilevskiy in the matchup of the round; Detroit (-5) hosts Orlando after erasing a 22-point halftime deficit in G6 (Magic missed 23 straight third-quarter shots); Cleveland (-7) hosts Toronto after RJ Barrett's 1.9-second OT corner three forced the deciding game. Public money is heavy on home favorites in three of four; the sharper play is the Magic +5 if Banchero's hamstring tightens up. Our Stanley Cup model has Tampa at ~9% Cup probability if they win G7 (pushing total Atlantic outcomes to over half the East field), Montreal at ~5%.
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