The USMNT meets Belgium in the World Cup Round of 16 on Monday July 6 (8 p.m. ET, Lumen Field, Seattle) with a quarter-final spot on the line, and the pre-match news reshaped it: FIFA overturned Folarin Balogun's red card, so the US top scorer (three goals) is available after all. FanDuel, which had priced the game a coin flip, now makes the US the favorite: USA +145, draw +240, Belgium +190, with the US -128 to advance (Belgium +106). Our best bet is Balogun anytime scorer, the restored focal point against a leaky Belgian back line; USA to advance (-128) or the US in regulation (+145) is the side value. We still respect Belgium (De Bruyne, Doku, Lukaku) at +190 and +106 to advance, since it is the more talented team, has won the last six meetings including the 2014 Round of 16, and in a knockout can defend deep and force extra time. Prediction: USA 2-1.
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