An instant classic. San Antonio led by 29 and set an NBA Finals record with 14 first-half threes, then scored just 30 points after halftime as New York stormed back for the largest comeback in Finals history. OG Anunoby (33 points) won it on a tip-in with 1.2 seconds left, and Jalen Brunson broke out of his slump with 36. Our pre-game reads landed two of three and the prediction nearly to the point: Spurs +2.5 cashed (they lost by one), the under 216.5 hit (213 total), and our Knicks 108-106 call missed the actual 107-106 by a single point. The miss was the Wembanyama over (he finished with 24). New York is now one win from its first title since 1973, with Game 5 Saturday in San Antonio. For the series picture see our NBA Finals hub.
The situation (Game 4 preview, as written before tipoff)
The Knicks still control the series, but Game 3 was a reminder it is not over. San Antonio answered an 0-2 hole with a 115-111 win at Madison Square Garden, ending New York's 13-game playoff winning streak. Victor Wembanyama was the best player on the floor again (32 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 blocks), and rookie Stephon Castle iced it with a late three and the clinching free throws. Jalen Brunson scored 32 but needed 25 shots to get there, his second straight inefficient night.
Game 4 is the swing. Win it and New York takes a 3-1 lead that teams have historically closed out around 95% of the time. Lose it and the series is level 2-2 with a best-of-three, two of those potentially back in San Antonio. For the Knicks it is a chance to deliver a near-knockout at home; for the Spurs it is close to must-win, because a 3-1 deficit against this New York team would be very hard to escape.
Game 4 odds
New York is a short home favorite, listed around NYK -2.5 (some books as low as -1.5), about -130 on the moneyline, with San Antonio a +110 road dog. The total sits at 216.5. That is a tight number for a team up 2-1 at home, which tells you the market respects both the Spurs and the strange road-team pattern this series keeps producing.
The trends that matter
- The road team has won all three games. It is only the second time that has happened to open an NBA Finals (the other was 1993, Suns vs Bulls). If it holds, San Antonio wins Game 4; if it breaks, New York goes up 3-1. Either way it is the defining oddity of the series.
- The total keeps coming in low, mostly. Game 1 (200) and Game 2 (209) both went under; Game 3 (226) was the exception. Both teams trended under across the regular season, around 53% for New York and 54% for San Antonio.
- Brunson is in a shooting slump. New York's engine has gone 11-of-25 and shot inefficiently in back-to-back games. A bounce-back at home would flip the series math toward the Knicks fast; another off night keeps the door open for San Antonio.
- 3-1 is the cliff. NBA teams that fall behind 3-1 win the series under 5% of the time, which is why this is effectively a must-win for the Spurs even though it is technically Game 4 of seven.
The matchup that decides it
It is Wembanyama against the Knicks' margins. He has been the best player in the series and it has not been enough, because the Spurs' supporting cast has been inconsistent away from home. On the other side, New York's offense runs through Brunson getting downhill, and his cold stretch has forced Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns to carry more of the scoring. If Brunson rediscovers his shot at MSG, the Knicks have a clear path to 3-1. If he stays stuck and the role players cannot match Wembanyama, the road-team trend has its next chapter.
Our picks
A note on these: we run a full probability model for the Stanley Cup Final, but not for the NBA Finals, so the picks below are editorial reads grounded in the odds and trends, not model output. We will be explicit about confidence.
The road team has won all three games, the Spurs are desperate to avoid 3-1, and Wembanyama is the best player in the series. Getting a short number with that combination is enough for a lean. It is a spread call on a fair price, not a claim that San Antonio takes over the series.
Two of the first three games landed under, both teams are under-trending sides, and Garden playoff intensity tends to tighten the game. The risk is Game 3's 226, but the weight of the series and the season points back to a lower-scoring game.
32 in Game 3, and now a near-must-win that San Antonio can only win by riding him. A heavy-usage, high-scoring night is the likeliest individual outcome regardless of the result.
Prediction
New York is the better-positioned team and should be favored at home, and a Brunson bounce-back at the Garden is the most likely way the Knicks finally hold serve and take a commanding 3-1 lead. But this series has stubbornly rewarded the road team, and Wembanyama keeps San Antonio in everything, so we expect it close late. Score prediction: Knicks 108, Spurs 106. The reads we back are the under and San Antonio keeping it inside the number; if Brunson stays cold, the outright upset is live.
For the full series picture and the NBA Finals schedule, see our 2026 NBA Finals hub.
Frequently asked questions
- What time is NBA Finals Game 4 and where is it?
- Game 4 is Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York, on ABC. New York leads the best-of-seven series 2-1 after San Antonio took Game 3 at the Garden 115-111.
- Who is favored in Game 4?
- New York is a short home favorite, around -2.5 on the spread (about -130 on the moneyline; some books have the Knicks as low as -1.5), with San Antonio a +110 road underdog. The total is 216.5. Prediction models land close to a coin flip with a Knicks tilt (numberFire had New York near 57%), which matches the short number.
- What is the best bet for Game 4?
- The under 216.5 is the cleanest angle: Games 1 and 2 both finished under (200 and 209), and both teams trended under across the regular season (about 53% of Knicks games, 54% of Spurs games). The caution is Game 3, which sailed over at 226. On the side, San Antonio +2.5 has trend support: the road team has won all three games in this series, and the Spurs are desperate to avoid a 3-1 hole.
- Why has the road team won every game?
- It is one of the strangest trends of the series. The road team has won all three games so far, only the second time that has happened to start an NBA Finals (the other was 1993, Suns vs Bulls). There is no clean explanation; it is the kind of small-sample quirk that usually breaks rather than continues, but with the series this tight it is worth knowing before backing the home team to lay points.
- Are there any injuries for Game 4?
- No major injuries have been reported. Victor Wembanyama (32 points in Game 3) and Jalen Brunson are both healthy, and Stephon Castle, who had a brief ankle scare earlier in the series, has been playing through it. Confirm the final injury report before tip.
Odds are consensus US-sportsbook prices as of 2026-06-10 and move before tipoff. Informational analysis, not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.