The matchup
Two rebuilding rosters with quarterback and depth questions to sort out, which is exactly what preseason is for. New England is a slim home favorite in a game the market can barely separate.
As with every preseason opener, the result hinges less on the names on the marquee than on how long each coach plays his front-line group before turning it over to backups and roster-bubble players. Treat the line accordingly: it is a read on playing time as much as talent.
Our read
A note on these: we do not run a probability model for NFL preseason, and no one should. This is a low-information spot, so the pick below is an editorial lean and the right stake is a small one.
With both teams giving long looks to backups and roster-bubble players, expect stalled drives and a low-scoring evaluation game. The under is the play over a spread with no conviction behind it.
Two patterns hold up across preseason history: teams laying more than a touchdown cover at a poor rate, and openers tend to stay under as rusty offenses sputter. When in doubt on this slate, that is the framework, and playing time is the variable to check right before kickoff.
Frequently asked questions
- What time is Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots and where can I watch?
- Indianapolis Colts play New England Patriots on Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET in NFL preseason Week 1, on Local TV. It is one of 16 preseason openers across August 13 to 15.
- What are the odds for Colts vs Patriots?
- FanDuel lists the game at Patriots -1.5, with a total of 38.5 points. Preseason spreads are short and move with news about how long each team will play its starters, so shop the number before kickoff.
- What is the best bet for Colts vs Patriots?
- Our lean is Under 38.5. With both teams giving long looks to backups and roster-bubble players, expect stalled drives and a low-scoring evaluation game. The under is the play over a spread with no conviction behind it. This is an editorial read, not model output, and preseason confidence should be low, so keep the stake small.
- Is it worth betting NFL preseason games?
- Preseason is a low-information environment: front-line starters play a handful of snaps, and games turn on backups, rookies, and roster-bubble players. Coaching tendencies, depth, and playing time matter more than talent, so lean on totals and situational angles, treat it as entertainment, and bet small.
Odds are FanDuel prices as of 2026-08-11 and move before kickoff; other US books price the same markets. Picks are editorial analysis, not model output, and not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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