NHL MVP (Hart Trophy) Odds
Awarded June 2027 · Voted by Professional Hockey Writers Association
McDavid opens at +350 chasing his fourth Hart. MacKinnon +500 and Matthews +600 lead the chasing pack.
Every Contender Ranked
The NHL's Hart Trophy is awarded to the player judged most valuable to his team. It typically rewards elite forwards on playoff teams; defensemen rarely win (Cale Makar 2025 the exception). Pre-season futures favor the established stars; in-season value comes from breakout candidates around Thanksgiving.
| # | Player | Odds | Editorial Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers | +350 | Three-time Hart winner; still the best player in hockey at 28 |
| 02 | Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche | +500 | Defending Hart winner (per our 2025-26 projection); Avs the West favorite |
| 03 | Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leafs | +600 | Goal scorer of the era; needs Toronto playoff success for the ballot |
| 04 | Leon Draisaitl Edmonton Oilers | +800 | Splits MVP votes with McDavid; ceiling capped by teammate |
| 05 | Cale Makar Colorado Avalanche | +1100 | Defenseman; only D to win Hart since Bobby Orr; ceiling unique |
| 06 | Nikita Kucherov Tampa Bay Lightning | +1200 | Two Hart wins; Tampa core aging but still elite when healthy |
| 07 | David Pastrnak Boston Bruins | +1400 | Goal scorer with PR upside; Bruins have to bounce back for the ballot |
| 08 | Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins | +2200 | Year 22; Penguins must contend for him to seriously contend |
| 09 | Quinn Hughes Vancouver Canucks | +2500 | Defenseman; 2024 Norris winner; Canucks projected playoff team |
| 10 | Connor Bedard Chicago Blackhawks | +2500 | Year 4 breakout candidate if Hawks make a playoff push |
| 11 | Jack Hughes New Jersey Devils | +3000 | Health-dependent; when on the floor he is top-5 forward |
| 12 | Sebastian Aho Carolina Hurricanes | +3500 | Hurricanes the Metro favorite; Aho's two-way game underrated |
Odds reflect a consensus snapshot across major US-licensed operators as of . Prices vary slightly between books — line-shop across two or three operators before placing a futures bet at this size.
What the Market Is Telling Us
McDavid at +350 reflects his career floor as the best player in hockey. He has won three Harts, finished top-3 in seven of the last eight seasons, and the Oilers' projected top-3 West finish provides team-success backing for the ballot.
MacKinnon at +500 is the value play if Colorado runs the table again. He's coming off the 2025-26 Hart (per our projection above) and the Avs roster is fully healthy heading into 2026-27. Back-to-back Harts are rare but achievable.
Best value: Matthews at +600. Pure goal scorers historically struggle for Hart votes (the award rewards 'most valuable to team' rather than 'best individual production'), but if Toronto wins 50+ games and Matthews scores 65+ goals, voter narrative will shift. The +600 price assumes Toronto disappoints again.
Sleeper: Cale Makar at +1100. As a defenseman his ceiling for the Hart is structurally limited (the award rarely goes to D), but his offensive production at the position is unmatched. If Colorado has another Presidents\' Trophy season, voters could reward Makar similar to how they did in 2025-26.
How to Bet a Futures Market
Futures bets compound differently from straight game bets. Three principles separate sharp futures bettors from the field.
Bet early; the price only gets shorter
Futures markets compress as the season progresses. A team that opens at +1500 in March is rarely +1500 by July if they\'re winning. The cost of being right early is smaller than the cost of being right late.
Hedge selectively, never at first chance
Hedging mid-season locks in modest profit but caps your upside. Best hedge windows: when your futures team is one win from the championship, or when the opposing-side price is favorable enough to guarantee a meaningful return regardless of outcome.
Size for variance, not for confidence
Even a "mortal lock" futures bet has a 30-50% loss probability in the long run. Treat futures positions as longshots even when they feel safe. Use Kelly-criterion sizing if you have a calibrated edge.
Shop two-to-three books on every futures bet
Pricing differences of 50-100 cents on long-shot futures are routine. A +2000 ticket at one book might be +2200 at another — that 200-cent gap is 10% of your potential payout. Use the major US books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars) as your line-shopping baseline.
Want to do the math? Use our parlay calculator to combine futures legs, our no-vig converter to see what the market actually believes, and our Kelly criterion calculator for optimal bet sizing.
Frequently Asked
What is the Hart Trophy?
The Hart Memorial Trophy is the NHL's Most Valuable Player award, given annually to the player judged most valuable to his team during the regular season. Voted by the Professional Hockey Writers Association at the end of the regular season; postseason performance is not considered.
When is the Hart Trophy awarded?
The Hart Trophy is announced at the NHL Awards ceremony in late June, after the Stanley Cup Final concludes. Voting closes immediately after the regular season ends in mid-April.
Can defensemen or goalies win the Hart Trophy?
Rarely. Since 1990, only Chris Pronger (2000), Carey Price (2015), and Cale Makar (2025, per our projection) have won as non-forwards. Goalies have their own award (Vezina) and defensemen have theirs (Norris); voters tend to push them toward those rather than Hart.
When is the best time to bet Hart Trophy futures?
Three windows: (1) Pre-season (September), when offseason moves are settled but new lines and chemistry are unknown; (2) Late November, when 25-game samples reveal early MVP separation; (3) Mid-February at the trade deadline, when contender depth becomes clear.
How important is team success for the Hart?
Important. Of the last 20 Hart winners, 18 played for playoff teams. Voters reward elite individual play on a winning team. Bet against Hart candidates whose teams are projected outside the playoff cut.
How does Hart differ from Conn Smythe?
Hart is the regular-season MVP award. Conn Smythe is the playoff MVP, awarded after the Stanley Cup Final. Different markets, different criteria. Conn Smythe heavily favors the leading scorer/playmaker on the winning team.