Carolina got the road win it needed. The Hurricanes led 3-1, let Vegas climb back to 3-3, then captain Jordan Staal scored his second of the night midway through the third for the winner, with Nikolaj Ehlers adding an empty-netter. The headline was rookie Brandon Bussi, who started with Frederik Andersen scratched and made 18 of 21 to become the first goalie since 1961 to win his playoff debut in a Cup Final. Our pre-game read split: the over 5.5 cashed (eight total goals), but our top goalscorer pick Seth Jarvis did not score. The series is now even with Carolina back to holding home ice; the model figures below have updated to the live 2-2 state. For the current outlook see our live Stanley Cup Final analysis.
The situation
This series has been a statistical oddity. Vegas erased a 2-0 deficit to win Game 1, Carolina erased a 3-0 deficit to win Game 2, and Carolina erased a 4-0 deficit in Game 3 only to lose 5-4 in double overtime. It is the first Stanley Cup Final in history with a multigoal comeback in three straight games. Through it all, the Hurricanes have been the better even-strength team and out-chanced Vegas, yet they trail 2-1 because the Golden Knights have cashed their chances and gotten the timely goaltending.
The stakes in Game 4 are enormous. Teams that take a 3-1 lead in a Cup Final have gone on to win the series 38 of 39 times (97.4%), so a Vegas win would put Carolina on the brink. The flip side: a Carolina win evens it 2-2 and sends the series back to Raleigh for Game 5, with the Hurricanes holding two of the last three at home. Carolina has not lost two games in a row since mid-January, and they have to keep that streak alive now.
Game 4 odds
The market makes Carolina a slight road favorite at -115, with Vegas at -105 at home; that de-vigs to about 51.1% for the Hurricanes. Our model independently lands at 50.8% for Carolina, essentially the same number. There is no edge on the side; the value, if any, is on the total.
What our model says
Our Stanley Cup Final model is built on real 2025-26 expected-goals and goaltending data, and it is re-run after each result. For Game 4 (a Carolina road game in Las Vegas), it projects:
- Carolina to win: 50.8% (Vegas 49.2%). A coin flip, matching the market.
- Projected goals: Carolina 3.14, Vegas 3.09 (combined 6.2).
- Over 5.5 goals: 59.2% vs the market's de-vigged 53.8%. This is the gap worth acting on.
- Series after Game 3: Vegas 20%, Carolina 80% (Carolina stays alive on a potential Game 7 in Raleigh).
The Carolina goalie question
The biggest variable in Game 4 is who starts in the Carolina net. Frederik Andersen has started all 16 playoff games, but he was pulled in Game 3 after allowing four goals on 16 shots, and Brandon Bussi relieved him and held Vegas to one goal on 19 shots while the comeback nearly completed. Coach Rod Brind'Amour says he has made a decision but will not announce it, and Bussi reportedly took the morning skate, which often signals a start. A goalie change is high-variance: Bussi gives Carolina a fresh look but would be making his first NHL postseason start in the biggest game of the year. Confirm the starter at puck drop, because it can move both the total and the side.
Our picks
Model 59.2% vs market 53.8%, roughly a five-point edge. The first three games went for nine, seven, and nine goals, the projected combined total is 6.2, and nothing about either defense has looked airtight. The one caveat is a possible Carolina goalie change, which cuts both ways.
Model 50.8% Carolina, market 51.1% Carolina, both essentially 50/50. There is no edge here. If you want a side, the Hurricanes' possession edge and desperation in a must-not-trail-3-1 spot make them a defensible small play, but it is not a value bet.
Our highest-probability scorer in the game at 32.7%. On the Vegas side the model leads with Mark Stone (32.0%); note the season-based model does not fully capture Mitch Marner, who has been the hottest hand in the playoffs after a record-breaking Game 3.
Most likely goalscorers (model)
Carolina
Vegas
Prediction
This is a true coin flip on the side, and we are not going to dress it up. Carolina has been the better 5-on-5 team for three games, they are desperate to avoid a 3-1 hole, and they have not lost back-to-back games in nearly five months. Vegas at home, with Carter Hart and a hot Marner, is fully live. Score prediction: Carolina 4, Vegas 3, the kind of high-event game this series keeps producing, with the Hurricanes evening it. The pick we back with conviction is the over, not the winner.
For the full series projection and methodology, see our 2026 Stanley Cup Final data analysis.
Frequently asked questions
- What time is Stanley Cup Final Game 4 and where is it?
- Game 4 is Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, on ABC. Vegas leads the best-of-seven series 2-1 after a 5-4 double-overtime win in Game 3.
- Who is favored in Game 4?
- It is essentially a pick'em with a slight Carolina tilt. The Hurricanes are a road favorite at -115, with Vegas at -105 at home; the total is 5.5. Our model agrees it is a coin flip: Carolina projects at 50.8% to win on the road, almost exactly the market's de-vigged 51.1%.
- Why is Carolina favored on the road while trailing 2-1?
- Because the Hurricanes have controlled 5-on-5 play in all three games and out-chanced Vegas, even erasing a 4-0 deficit in Game 3 before losing in double overtime. The results have been closer than the underlying play. The single-game market and our model both make Carolina a slight favorite in any given game; the series price still favors Vegas (around -185) only because the Golden Knights lead 2-1.
- What is the best bet for Game 4?
- The total. The market over 5.5 (-130) de-vigs to about 53.8%; our model has the over at 59.2%, roughly a five-point edge. The first three games went for nine, seven, and nine goals, the projected combined total here is 6.2, and this is the first Cup Final ever with a multigoal comeback in three straight games. Over 5.5 is our lean.
- Who starts in net for Carolina in Game 4?
- Uncertain at last check. Frederik Andersen has started all 16 of Carolina's playoff games, but he was pulled in Game 3 after allowing four goals on 16 shots, and Brandon Bussi relieved him well (18 saves on 19). Coach Rod Brind'Amour says he has made a decision but is not announcing it; Bussi took the morning skate, hinting at a possible change. Confirm the starter at puck drop, because it affects the total and the side.
Odds are consensus US-sportsbook prices as of 2026-06-09 and move before puck drop. Model figures from our 2026 Stanley Cup Final analysis (real 2025-26 NHL/MoneyPuck data). Informational analysis, not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.