The matchup
On paper Sweden should win this. With Isak fit again after his record move to Liverpool and Gyokeres in the form of his life, Graham Potter's side has a forward line good enough to break down most defenses, and that talent gap is why the Swedes are favored. The problem for backers is the price: at -110, FanDuel is barely making Sweden a favorite at all, which leaves no margin if the game turns scrappy.
Tunisia is the kind of opponent that makes a soft favorite sweat. They are organized, defend deep in numbers, and are happy to turn a match into a low-event grind and nick something on the counter or a set piece. The widely projected scoreline is a 1-1 draw, and a tournament opener where a disciplined underdog sits in against a favorite that has not yet found rhythm is a classic spot for points to be dropped. For the rest of the group, see our Group F guide.
The picks
A note on these: we run a full probability model for the Stanley Cup Final, not for soccer, so the picks below are editorial reads grounded in the FanDuel odds and the matchup.
The value play. A -110 favorite is a coin-flip price, and FanDuel's draw (+240) and Tunisia (+340) prices combine into a double chance sitting near even money. You only lose if Sweden win in 90 minutes; the projected 1-1 and Tunisia's defensive organization say that is far from a sure thing. Better than laying a soft favorite straight up.
The other angle worth a look, and the closest call on the board. Sweden's Isak-and-Gyokeres firepower is the case for goals: if the Swedes go ahead, Tunisia has to come out and chase. Be honest about the other side, though, because the projected 1-1 and Tunisia's low block argue under, so we treat the over as a smaller, higher-variance play than the double chance.
If you like both, FanDuel lets you put them on one ticket. A score-y draw or a Tunisia win with goals (think 2-2 or 1-2) cashes both legs at a much longer price. It is a higher-variance swing, so keep the stake small.
Prediction
Sweden will have the better chances, but Tunisia's organization and a flat tournament-opener tempo keep it level, with both sides finding the net. Score prediction: Sweden 2, Tunisia 2. That cashes the double chance and the over, which is the way we are leaning. The honest risk is the under: a 1-0 or 1-1 is just as plausible if Tunisia's block holds and Sweden's finishing stays cold, so the double chance is the steadier of the two plays.
New to three-way soccer odds, the draw, and double chance? Our World Cup betting guide maps them to US-sports terms.
Frequently asked questions
- What time is Sweden vs Tunisia and where is it?
- Sweden vs Tunisia is Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 10 p.m. ET at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico, a 2026 World Cup Group F match. Group F also includes the other two sides the winners will chase for a knockout spot.
- What are the FanDuel odds for Sweden vs Tunisia?
- FanDuel makes Sweden only a soft favorite at -110 on the 90-minute moneyline, with the draw at +240 and Tunisia at +340. The total is set at 2.5 goals. A -110 favorite is essentially a coin-flip price, which is the whole reason the derivative markets are more interesting than laying the Swedes straight up.
- What is the best bet for Sweden vs Tunisia?
- Double chance: Tunisia or draw (X2). Sweden has the better forwards in Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, but at just -110 the market is barely backing them, and Tunisia is a disciplined, well-organized defensive side that projects to keep this tight; the most common scoreline call is a 1-1 draw. Taking Tunisia-or-draw means you only lose if Sweden win outright, which the odds say is close to a coin flip.
- Should I bet over or under 2.5 goals?
- It is the closest call on the board, and opinion is genuinely split. The case for the over 2.5 is Sweden's attacking talent: Isak and Gyokeres can punish Tunisia and force the game open. The case for the under, which the projected 1-1 supports, is that Tunisia defends deep and these are two sides that can cancel each other out. We lean over as the secondary angle but treat it as a smaller, higher-variance play than the double chance.
- Who is favored to win Sweden vs Tunisia?
- Sweden, but only just, at -110. With Isak fit again after his move to Liverpool and Gyokeres leading the line under manager Graham Potter, Sweden has the firepower edge. Tunisia's path is its organization and a low block, which is exactly why the draw (+240) is a live outcome and the double chance is our preferred position.
Odds are FanDuel prices as of 2026-06-14 and move before kickoff; the three-way moneyline and totals are for 90 minutes (regulation). Picks are editorial analysis, not model output, and not betting advice. 21+ and present in a state where FanDuel is licensed. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.