The USMNT blew the doors off its home opener, the most goals the US men have ever scored in a World Cup game. Folarin Balogun scored twice, an own goal and a late Gio Reyna strike completed the rout, and Christian Pulisic ran the show without getting on the scoresheet. Our reads split: we had the United States to win, which cashed comfortably, but our best bet (under 2.5) and the Pulisic anytime-scorer prop both missed, badly in the case of the under. We expected Paraguay to bunker and grind; instead the US blew it open. The figures below are the preview as written before kickoff.
The matchup
This is the game the United States has pointed at since the draw. Under Mauricio Pochettino the attacking talent is deep and fluid, with Christian Pulisic the focal point, and the USMNT has shown real scoring punch, reaching two or more goals in 10 of 26 matches under the manager, including a 2-1 win over this same Paraguay side. Playing at a packed SoFi Stadium, the Americans are a deserved, if slight, favorite to start the tournament with three points. For the full US tournament outlook, see our USMNT betting guide.
Paraguay is the kind of opener nobody wants: organized, physical, and content to defend deep and counter. The injury to standout forward Julio Enciso, expected to miss this match, blunts their best attacking outlet and is a real reason the US is priced ahead. The likeliest shape of this game is the USMNT controlling the ball against a low block, which raises the chance of a tight, lower-scoring night rather than an open one. The rest of the group is in our Group D guide.
Our read
A note on these: we run a full probability model for the Stanley Cup Final, but not for soccer. The picks below are editorial reads grounded in the odds and the matchup, and we are explicit about that.
Paraguay will sit deep and try to turn this into a grind, and a USMNT working to break down a low block often gets there late rather than in a flurry. With Enciso out, Paraguay's counter threat is reduced too. A 1-0 or 2-0 US win is squarely in range, which keeps the under live.
A fair price on a home favorite that has the better squad and the crowd, against an opponent missing its best attacker. It is closer to a coin flip than the public sentiment suggests (markets have it near 50%), so this is a confidence lean on a fair number, not a value edge.
If you want to back the US, Pulisic is the cleaner expression than the coin-flip moneyline. He is expected to start, he is the focal point of the attack, and plus-money on the team's best player to score in a game the US should control is a reasonable swing.
Prediction
The US controls the ball and eventually breaks through against a tiring Paraguay block, but it is not the goal-fest some expect. Score prediction: USA 2, Paraguay 0. The reads we back are the under 2.5 and a Pulisic scorer position; the moneyline is fine at the price but closer to a coin flip than it feels.
Want a step-by-step for this exact match? See our how to bet USMNT vs Paraguay guide, which walks through every market, how to place the bet, and the FanDuel and Fanatics welcome offers. New to soccer markets generally? Our World Cup betting guide maps 1X2, the draw, and Asian handicaps to what you already know.
Frequently asked questions
- What time is USA vs Paraguay and where is it?
- The USMNT opens its home World Cup against Paraguay on Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on FOX (and streaming free on Tubi). It is a Group D match.
- Who is favored in USA vs Paraguay?
- The United States is a slight home favorite, around -110 on the 90-minute moneyline, with the draw near +220 and Paraguay a +290 underdog. It is close to a coin flip with a US tilt: prediction markets imply roughly 50% USA, 29% draw, 23% Paraguay. The home crowd and Paraguay missing the injured Julio Enciso nudge it the USMNT's way.
- What is the best bet for USA vs Paraguay?
- These are editorial reads, not model output. The most-backed angle is the under 2.5 goals: Paraguay is defensively solid and likely to sit deep and try to make this a low-event game, exactly the script that keeps the total down. On the result, the USA is a fair price to win but not a value blowout, and a Christian Pulisic anytime-scorer position (around +225) is a cleaner way to back the home side than laying the coin-flip moneyline.
- Is Christian Pulisic playing, and is Paraguay at full strength?
- Pulisic is expected to start, and the USMNT reported no injury concerns. Paraguay, however, is set to be without its standout Julio Enciso, who picked up an injury, which thins its attack and is part of why the US is favored.
Odds are consensus US-sportsbook prices as of 2026-06-12 and move before kickoff; the three-way moneyline is for 90 minutes (regulation). Picks are editorial analysis, not model output, and not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.