Hedge Calculator
You have a bet that's appreciated and now you want to lock in profit regardless of outcome. Enter your original stake + odds and the available opposing-side line; the calculator returns the hedge stake and your guaranteed profit floor.
Original bet
Hedge bet
Adjust inputs above to see the hedge math.
When to hedge (and when not to)
Hedging trades expected value for variance reduction. The classic case: a futures bet that has appreciated so much that the locked-in profit is psychologically meaningful, even if you give up some EV.
Example: You bet $100 on Team X to win the championship at +1500 (decimal 16.0) in October. They reach the final in June. The opposing finalist now prices at -150 (decimal 1.667). Hedge stake to equalize payouts: $952. Total invested: $1,052. Guaranteed return either way: $1,600. Guaranteed profit: $548 (roughly 52% ROI on total investment, locked in either way).
Vs riding it out: 60% probability your team wins (implied by -150 opponent), so your expected payout from riding is 0.4 × $1,600 = $640. Hedging trades $92 of EV for the certainty of $548 profit. Whether that trade is worth it depends on how much you can absorb the $100 loss case.
Frequently Asked Questions About Hedging
What is hedging in sports betting?
Hedging means placing a second bet on the opposing side of a market you already wagered on, in order to lock in profit (or reduce loss) regardless of outcome. Most common with futures bets that have appreciated in value, where you can hedge live or near settlement.
When should I hedge a bet?
Consider hedging when (1) your original bet has appreciated significantly (e.g. team you bet at +1500 is now in the championship final at -120), (2) you cannot psychologically absorb the loss if the opposite outcome happens, or (3) the available hedge price guarantees a meaningful profit floor. Never hedge for emotional reasons alone.
Does hedging cost money?
Yes, in expected value terms. The combined vig on both sides means you give up some EV vs riding out the original bet. Hedging trades EV for variance reduction. Mathematically optimal hedging usually means hedging only when guaranteed profit is meaningful, not for small downside protection.
How do I calculate the hedge stake?
Hedge stake = (original payout) / (hedge decimal odds + 1). The calculator does this for you. The result is the stake on the opposing side that, combined with your original bet, produces equal payouts regardless of outcome.
Can I hedge across different sportsbooks?
Yes. In fact, often the best hedge prices are at a different operator than the one carrying your original bet. Compare prices across books before hedging — the difference between -110 and -125 hedge can be 5-10% of your guaranteed profit.