Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final is tonight, Tuesday June 9 (8 p.m. ET, ABC) at T-Mobile Arena, with Vegas leading the series 2-1 after a 5-4 double-overtime win in Game 3. The stakes are huge: teams that take a 3-1 Cup Final lead have won the series 38 of 39 times (97.4%), so a Carolina loss is near-fatal, while a win evens it 2-2 with two of the last three back in Raleigh. Oddly, Carolina is a slight road favorite (-115 vs Vegas -105) despite trailing, because the Hurricanes have out-chanced Vegas at 5-on-5 in all three games, even erasing a 4-0 Game 3 deficit before losing. Our model agrees it is a coin flip (Carolina 50.8% on the road) and sees the edge on the total: model over 5.5 at 59% versus a market that de-vigs lower, with the first three games going for nine, seven, and nine goals. Over 5.5 is our best bet. The wild card is the Carolina net: Brind'Amour has not said whether Andersen or Brandon Bussi starts. NBA: the Knicks lead 2-1 after dropping Game 3, with Game 4 Wednesday at MSG.
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