Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final is tonight, Thursday June 11 (8 p.m. ET, ABC) at Lenovo Center, with the series tied 2-2 after Carolina's 5-3 road win in Game 4. The winner takes a 3-2 lead with a chance to clinch in Game 6. Carolina is the home favorite at -154 (Vegas +126), and our model agrees almost exactly, giving the Hurricanes about 59% on home ice; from 2-2 with Games 5 and 7 in Raleigh, the model has Carolina at 59% to win the Cup. The total has climbed to 6.5 after four straight overs at 5.5, so the over value is gone, with our model now a slight lean to the under. The biggest variable is the Carolina net: rookie Brandon Bussi won his playoff debut in Game 4 with Andersen scratched, and whether he keeps the start is the open question. Our picks: a modest Carolina moneyline lean, a light under 6.5, and Seth Jarvis (32.7%) as the top goalscorer. NBA: the Knicks lead 3-1 with Game 5 Saturday.
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