Carolina's most complete game of the Final. Jordan Staal opened the scoring (his sixth of the series), Andrei Svechnikov buried two power-play goals as Vegas lost its discipline, and Sebastian Aho added his first of the series; Brandon Bussi made 21 of 23 for his second straight win. Our pre-game reads landed two of three: the Carolina moneyline cashed and the under 6.5 hit (six total goals), while our top goalscorer pick Seth Jarvis did not find the net. Carolina is now one win from the Cup, with Game 6 in Las Vegas; the model figures below have updated to the live 3-2 state. For the current outlook see our live Stanley Cup Final analysis.
The situation
This series refuses to follow a script. Vegas stole Game 1, Carolina answered in overtime in Game 2, Vegas survived a double-overtime classic in Game 3, and Carolina punched back with a 5-3 road win in Game 4 to even it at 2-2. Through all four games the Hurricanes have controlled even-strength play and out-chanced Vegas, and they finally have the series where they wanted it from the start: tied, with home ice and two of the last three in Raleigh.
Game 5 is the hinge. In a best-of-three, the team that wins tonight goes up 3-2 and can close it out next game. For Carolina that would mean a chance to lift the Cup in Game 6, with a Game 7 back home if needed. For Vegas it is close to a must-win, because falling behind 3-2 with the clincher potentially in Raleigh is a tough spot, even for a team that has already won twice on Carolina ice this series.
Game 5 odds
Carolina is a -154 home favorite, with Vegas at +126 on the road, which de-vigs to about 57.8% for the Hurricanes. Our model lands at 59.0% for Carolina, essentially the same number. Note the total: after four straight games went over 5.5, the books pushed it up to 6.5 and juiced the under, so the over that kept cashing is now priced in.
What our model says
Our Stanley Cup Final model is built on real 2025-26 expected-goals and goaltending data, and it is re-run after each result. For Game 5 (a Carolina home game in Raleigh), it projects:
- Carolina to win: 59.0% (Vegas 41.0%), right on top of the market price.
- Projected goals: Carolina 3.40, Vegas 2.86 (combined 6.3).
- Under 6.5 goals: 56.5% vs the market's de-vigged 54.9%. A slight lean to the under now that the line has climbed.
- Series from 2-2: Carolina 80%, Vegas 20%, on the strength of hosting Games 5 and 7.
The Carolina goalie question
The defining variable is the Carolina crease. Rookie Brandon Bussi started Game 4 with Frederik Andersen scratched and delivered, stopping 18 of 21 to become the first goalie since 1961 to win his playoff debut in a Cup Final. Whether Rod Brind'Amour rides the hot hand at home or returns to the veteran Andersen is the call that could swing the night, and the model deliberately does not try to outguess it (Bussi has almost no NHL sample to rate). On the other side, Vegas stays with Carter Hart, who has been beatable in this series. If Carolina gets even league-average goaltending behind its possession edge, the model likes the Hurricanes; if the goalie carousel backfires, that is the upset path for Vegas.
Our picks
The cleanest small edge on the board: model 59.0% versus a de-vigged market of 57.8%, plus home ice, the run-of-play edge across four games, and Bussi riding momentum. It is a modest lean on a fair price, not a value blowout.
The over was the play at 5.5; at 6.5 the math flips. Our model has the combined total at 6.3 and the under at 56.5%, a small edge. The caution is obvious: four straight games have sailed over, so this is a light lean, not a hammer.
Our highest-probability scorer in the game at 32.7%. On the Vegas side, Mark Stone (32.0%) and Pavel Dorofeyev (31.3%) lead the model.
Most likely goalscorers (model)
Carolina
Vegas
Prediction
Carolina has been the better even-strength team all series and finally has the schedule on its side. Backed by a raucous Lenovo Center and the momentum of the Game 4 win, we expect the Hurricanes to take a 3-2 series lead, one win from the Cup. The series has produced a multigoal swing every night, so we are not betting the under hard. Score prediction: Carolina 4, Vegas 3. The pick we back is Carolina on the moneyline; the goalie call is the one thing that could flip it.
For the full series projection and methodology, see our 2026 Stanley Cup Final data analysis.
Frequently asked questions
- What time is Stanley Cup Final Game 5 and where is it?
- Game 5 is Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, on ABC. The series is tied 2-2 after Carolina won Game 4 5-3 on the road, and the winner of Game 5 takes a 3-2 lead with a chance to clinch in Game 6.
- Who is favored in Game 5?
- Carolina is the home favorite at -154, with Vegas a +126 road underdog; the total is 6.5. Our model agrees with the market almost exactly: it gives Carolina about 59.0% to win on home ice, against a de-vigged market price of roughly 57.8%. Home ice is doing the work in what is otherwise a coin-flip matchup.
- What is the best bet for Game 5?
- The easy edge is gone on the total. After four straight games cleared 5.5, books moved the number up to 6.5 and juiced the under. Our model has the combined goals at about 6.3 and the under 6.5 at roughly 56.5%, a slight lean to the under, but no longer the clear value it was at 5.5. The cleanest small edge is Carolina on the moneyline, where the model (59.0%) sits just ahead of the market.
- Who starts in net for Carolina in Game 5?
- The biggest question of the night. Rookie Brandon Bussi started Game 4 with Frederik Andersen scratched and won, making 18 of 21 to become the first goalie since 1961 to win his playoff debut in a Cup Final. He headlines the Game 5 goalie speculation, but Carolina has not confirmed whether he keeps the net at home or Andersen returns. Vegas sticks with Carter Hart, who has struggled in the series. Confirm the Carolina starter at puck drop.
- Can Vegas still win the series from 2-2?
- Of course; it is a best-of-three now. But the math leans Carolina: the Hurricanes host Games 5 and 7, and our model gives them about 79.8% to win the Cup from here. Vegas almost certainly has to win at least one game in Raleigh, and on the only road night so far in this series the home team lost, so the road-ice question cuts both ways.
Odds are consensus US-sportsbook prices as of 2026-06-11 and move before puck drop. Model figures from our 2026 Stanley Cup Final analysis (real 2025-26 NHL/MoneyPuck data). Informational analysis, not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.